The 2024 Austrian National Council Election: Populist Surge and Political Uncertainty

The 29th of September 2024 saw Austrians head to the polls to elect the National Council (the Austrian Parliamentary equivalent). The election saw a resounding victory for Herbert Kickl’s Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ), Austria’s largest populist-right party. Despite being led by one of Austria’s more polarising politicians, Kickl’s FPÖ secured 57 seats, a marked increase of 26 seats from the 2019 legislative election. The result reflects the continued rise of right-wing populism throughout Europe, a trend witnessed in electoral results from the United Kingdom to Hungary. 

The success of the FPÖ underscores a clearer shift in voter sentiment, increasingly dissatisfied with moderate immigration policy, globalisation, and the establishment political elite. Like others across Europe, many Austrians are turning to populist parties as a response to concerns over immigration regulation, economic insecurity, national identity, and the war in Ukraine. This shift is notable in traditionally conservative Austria, which has seen significant debate surrounding immigration policy and EU integration, amplified in the context of the 2015 migrant crisis. 

A Surge Without a Majority 

Despite significant gains, the FPÖ fell short of the 92-seat threshold needed for an outright majority in the 183-seat National Council, leaving the party with a deficit of 35 seats – forcing Kickl to seek a coalition partner to form a government. While this is a common practice in Austrian politics, due to its proportional representation system, this may serve as a challenging undertaking for the FPÖ, given the strong opposition to their Euroscepticism and far-right policies by most mainstream European and Austrian parties. 

Historically, the FPÖ has found probable coalition partners in Karl Nehammer’s Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP), Austria’s centre-right party. The parties even formed a coalition government from 2017 to 2019, collapsing amid a corruption scandal involving the former FPÖ leader and the daughter of a Russian oligarch, in which the former vice-chancellor of the party, Heinz-Christian Strache, was receptive to the idea of trading favourable news coverage for government contracts. 

Despite this, a renewed coalition between the parties is possible, but would likely require substantial compromise on the contentious issues of immigration and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Also, both parties are wary of the political fallout resulting from the collaboration, given the immense unpopularity of the other in each party’s respective voter base. 

The ÖVP remains the most likely coalition partner, but a government would require concessions from both sides. For the ÖVP, aligning too closely with the FPÖ risks alienating more moderate voters who are opposed to much of the FPÖ’s populist rhetoric and controversial policy agenda. For the FPÖ, an alliance may estrange voters opposed to the cyclical structure of moderate policy enactment, making way for the capitalisation of the scenario by another populist group. 

Potential Isolation: A ‘Firewall’ Around the FPÖ? 

It is also possible that the FPÖ may face a political 'firewall' in the form of a cordon sanitaire, similar to what has been applied to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany. The AfD has gained significant support in Germany, particularly in the eastern states. Still, mainstream parties across the political spectrum, ranging from the centre-right Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU) to the centre-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD), have systematically refused to collaborate with the AfD, effectively isolating the party despite its electoral success, and its recent successes in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg. 

In Austria, a similar scenario could unfold if mainstream parties like the ÖVP, the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ), and the Greens form a united front to prevent the FPÖ from gaining further political influence. Such a ‘cordon sanitaire’ would force the FPÖ into opposition, constraining its capacity to influence government policy despite its electoral gains. The future political dynamics in Austria will depend comprehensively on whether other parties choose to engage with the FPÖ or isolate it in an attempt to curb the influence of populism. 

The Broader European Context 

The growth of right-wing populism in Central Europe raises larger questions about the reasoning behind the concentration of populist power in Central Europe, particularly in comparison to the Nordic region. Denmark, Sweden, and Finland have seen the rise of populist movements, but these parties have typically remained on the political margins or have been forced to moderate their policies in coalition governments. In contrast, Central European countries, including Austria, Hungary, and Poland, have witnessed the more sustained success of right-wing populist parties, often with little need for significant ideological compromise. 

The Future of Austrian Politics 

As Austria moves forward, the success of the populist right poses important questions for both the country and Europe as a whole. Why did the left-wing parties perform so poorly in the 2024 election, and why has the right-wing populist message resonated so strongly with Austrian voters? How does the Austrian electorate compare to that of other EU nations, such as Greece, Malta, or Cyprus, which have their own unique political landscapes? And finally, will Austria follow in the footsteps of Germany, building a political ‘firewall’ around the far-right, or will the FPÖ be able to secure a coalition and further embed itself in Austrian governance? 

Only time will tell, but one thing is clear: the rise of right-wing populism in Austria and across Europe is a political force that cannot be ignored.